In February 2026, gold prices suddenly fell to around $4,400 per ounce, creating fear among investors. However, gold price drops are not new and often happen even during strong long-term trends.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks across the world continue to increase their gold reserves as protection against inflation and global uncertainty
(https://www.gold.org).
This strong demand is one of the main reasons gold is still expected to perform well in 2026.
Gold Price Prediction Table for 2026
| Month (2026) | Global Gold Price (USD/oz) | India Gold Price (₹ per 10g) | Market Mood |
|---|---|---|---|
| February | $4,400 – $4,800 | ₹1.45L – ₹1.53L | Price fall, high fear |
| March | $4,650 – $4,950 | ₹1.52L – ₹1.58L | Market becomes stable |
| April / May | $4,900 – $5,200 | ₹1.60L – ₹1.65L | Prices recover |
| June | $5,200 – $5,400 | ₹1.68L – ₹1.72L | Mid-year high |
| July / August | $5,100 – $5,350 | ₹1.65L – ₹1.70L | Slow movement |
| September | $5,400 – $5,600 | ₹1.75L – ₹1.80L | Festival buying starts |
| October | $5,700 – $6,000 | ₹1.85L – ₹1.92L | Diwali & wedding demand |
| November / December | $6,100 – $6,300 | ₹1.95L – ₹2.05L | New record prices |
Prices are estimates and may change due to global and local market conditions.
Why the February Gold Price Fall Is Not a Bad Sign
Many investors panic when prices fall, but experts believe the February drop was temporary.
The World Gold Council reports that central banks are expected to buy over 800 tonnes of gold in 2026, showing long-term confidence in gold
(https://www.gold.org).
Large investment banks also support this view:
-
Goldman Sachs has increased its gold price outlook, expecting prices to move toward $5,400
(https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights) -
J.P. Morgan has projected even higher levels, with gold possibly reaching $6,300
(https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights)
These forecasts suggest that the February fall was a short-term correction, not the end of the gold rally.
India’s Budget 2026 and Its Impact on Gold
India is one of the biggest gold markets in the world. Any policy change has a direct effect on prices and investor behavior.
As per updates from the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, import duties on gold were not reduced in Budget 2026
(https://www.finmin.nic.in).
However, the government continued tax benefits on Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), which offer capital gains tax exemption if held till maturity, as mentioned on the official Budget portal
(https://www.indiabudget.gov.in).
This makes SGBs more tax-efficient compared to physical gold for long-term investors.
Technical Support Level to Watch
From a technical point of view, gold prices remain strong as long as they stay above $4,300.
Historical gold price data from the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) shows that prices often stabilize near long-term average levels before moving higher
(https://www.mcxindia.com).
This supports the view that current price levels are not a breakdown but a pause.
Can Gold Really Reach ₹2 Lakh in 2026?
Gold prices in India depend on:
-
Global gold prices
-
USD–INR exchange rate (tracked by the Reserve Bank of India)
(https://www.rbi.org.in) -
Festival and wedding demand
With strong global forecasts, stable currency conditions, and high Indian demand during Diwali and wedding seasons, gold reaching ₹2 lakh per 10 grams by late 2026 is possible.
Final Thoughts
The February 2026 gold price fall caused concern, but the bigger picture remains positive. Trusted institutions like the World Gold Council, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan continue to support a strong outlook for gold.
For Indian investors, understanding tax rules, choosing the right gold investment option, and staying patient may be more important than worrying about short-term price movements.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.